Global Solar Hits Parity Next Year, No Subsidies Needed

Because of strong demand for rooftop solar forecast this year in key markets and further drops in pricing, Deutsche Bank believes the solar industry will transition from subsidized to sustainable in 2014.

The industry passed the 100 gigawatt (GW) threshold in 2012 and because of strong demand expected this year, the Bank expects solar to grow 20% – to 30 GW this year. China, for example, is set for astounding growth.

By Jeff Spross

Deutsche Bank just released new analyses concluding that the global solar market will become sustainable on its own terms by the end of 2014, no longer needing subsidies to continue performing.

The German-based bank said that rooftop solar is looking especially robust, and sees strong demand in solar markets in India, China, Britain, Germany, and the US. As a result, Deutsche Bank actually increased its forecast for solar demand in 2013 to 30 gigawatts – a 20% increase over 2012.

Here’s Renew Economy with a summary of Deutsche Banks’s logic:

The key for Deutsche is the emergence of unsubsidised markets in many key countries. It points, for instance, to India, where despite delays in the national solar program, huge demand for state based schemes has produced very competitive tenders, in the [12 cents per kilowatt hour] range. Given the country’s high solar radiation profile and high electricity prices paid by industrial customers, it says several conglomerates are considering large scale implementation of solar for self consumption.

"Grid parity has been reached in India even despite the high cost of capital of around 10-12 percent," Deutsche Bank notes, and also despite a slight rise in module prices of [3 to 5 cents per kilowatt] in recent months (good for manufacturers).

Italy is another country that appears to be at grid parity, where several developers are under advanced discussions to develop unsubsidized projects in Southern Italy. Deutsche Bank says that for small commercial enterprises that can achieve 50 percent or more self consumption, solar is competitive with grid electricity in most parts of Italy, and commercial businesses in Germany that have the load profile to achieve up to 90 percent self consumption are also finding solar as an attractive source of power generation.

Deutsche bank says demand expected in subsidised markets such as Japan and the UK, including Northern Ireland, is expected to be strong, the US is likely to introduce favourable legislation, including giving solar installations the same status as real estate investment trusts, strong pipelines in Africa and the Middle east, and unexpectedly strong demand in countries such as Mexico and Caribbean nations means that its forecasts for the year are likely to rise.

As Renew Economy also points out, this is the third report in the past month anticipating a bright future for the global solar market: UBS released a report that concluded an "unsubsidized solar revolution" was in the works, "Thanks to significant cost reductions and rising retail tariffs, households and commercial users are set to install solar systems to reduce electricity bills – without any subsidies." And Macquarie Group argued that costs for rooftop solar in Germany have fallen so far that even with subsidy cuts "solar installations could continue at a torrid pace."

Here in America, solar power installations boomed over the course of 2011 and 2012, even as the price of solar systems continued to plunge. To a large extent, the American solar boom has been driven by third party leasing agreements – which are heavily involved in rooftop installation.

Meanwhile, on the international scene, the cost of manufacturing solar panels in China is expected to drop to an all-new low of 42 cents per watt in 2015, and power generated from solar is predicted to undercut that produced by both coal and most forms of natural gas within a decade.

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This article first appeared on Think Progress:

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Comments on “Global Solar Hits Parity Next Year, No Subsidies Needed”

  1. Paul Felix Schott

    Renewable Energy

    Solar, Wind, Hydro, Geothermal and others should be on the front cover of every Science Book kindergarten through high school.

    Leaders and Schools in all Nations need to Teach more on Solar and Renewable Energy.

    When this Old World starts getting you down. From Pollution the cost of OIL,
    Heating Fuel,The Fuel you put in your Vehicles, You Electric Bills from
    cooling air conditioners and lights not to speak of the Evil. The TAX that all
    Governments Federal, State, County and City put on everything they can think of.
    They are supposed to serve us. Not put a burden on its people. That they are
    elected to serve all the people you, not their own Pocket Books.

    The Wicked keep putting higher taxes on everything. Making it a Heavy
    Burden on many that are already struggling just to put food on the table.
    Too many Americans and People of all Nations have lost their home to the tax collector or to foreclosures
    from the unjust Bankers greed and their Government leaders. More are out of work and lost their homes then
    in the GREAT DEPRESSION, in the last ten years. All Americans and many Nations
    need good jobs and more of them. Not more TAXES and Wars.

    There is a Industry that will employ workers and is growing by more than 50%
    every year. There is a clear way for all up on the roof the Sun Light is free
    fuel from GOD. Some wicked in Government have been backing Coal, Oil, Gas and
    the Nuclear industries for too many years. These kickbacks to them were called
    Subsidizing Industry Technology and high paid scientist. Most all Wise Men and smart Economist, Environmentalists and good at heart Scientist call this padding their pockets and subsidizing back to the
    Stone Age.

    This might even been funny in the 1960?s. If it were a Fred Flintstones and
    Barny Rubble Movie. About How to aggressively systematically work with the rich
    to Pollute Ground Water quality to the point it is unsafe to drink or use.
    So to they make a law you can only buy water from their pipe line. And to make
    the air we breathe full of Toxic Gases, Sulfur Dioxide and more Radioactive
    and Acid Rain. Injuring all living things on Earth.

    With Fred Flintstones to the Rescue. To help create a Healthier Environment.
    For all Future Generations. By spotlighting Renewable Energy and Free Energy
    like Wind and Solar. On his and his neighbor Barny Rubble’s roof. Even though
    the greedy wicked would do everything to stop or slow them down.

    Just imagine a dream that a 100 years ago one of the smartest man to ever
    live had. A dream after working with Sun Light. That all on Earth would use
    Free Energy Solar Energy.

    That Dream also shared by a man that dreamed this over 2,250 years ago.
    Both These men showed the world in their days. That this dream of Free Energy
    Solar Energy Worldwide was very possible. Both of these two wise men had
    first hand worked and researched their experiments for not just days, weeks
    put for many years.

    One of these men used chalk on Black Board the others board was a black
    stone table or floor covered with white sand and used a stick. One of these
    two Brilliant men had Kings from all most every Kingdom on Earth come to him
    for advice.

    The other went to almost every nation on Earth. Freely on his own dime
    Teaching All that had ears to hear. He would win the Nobel Prize for doing so.
    For his work on Solar Energy. Only after years of doing research and when most
    Scientist on Earth would not take the nomination for the Nobel Prize in 1921 and knew
    it clearly belonged to this Brilliant Scientist, this Brilliant scientist was then awarded it in
    1922 for the 1921 year.

    Now if this was just a Pretend TV Show or a Movie from a dream. This would
    be a great Sci Fi Story Line. In the 1960?s or even better today. Sci Fi story
    Movie or dream No.

    All that i Have told you did actually really happen. Albert Einstein won the
    Nobel Prize for what? When Government leaders asked him to go on stage. To
    address the Scientific Community and the World. About what he was given the
    Nobel Prize for. When Albert Einstein Had done so. He addressed them with his
    other accomplishments. For years most Governments did not have a ear for
    Einstein’s Dream.

    Archimedes around 250 B.C. was know most of the World over as a great
    Mathematician. One of the first Scientist and Inventor of many things. Even
    the first Laser Ray from the Sun’s Energy. Science Fiction is what you would
    have though you were seeing if you could go back in time, it was real.To day
    we call it The LASER, Light Amplification by Stimulated Emission. Back then it
    was just called Amplification of the SUN, Archimedes Death Ray.

    Thousand of years later it would be a Laser. That Albert Einstein help
    make possible. That would unlock one of the first books on Earth.
    The METHOD written by Archimedes. Then over more than 250 years later. When
    well Faded was cut from a scroll and put into a book form, to be easier to
    hide from the Romans by St. Paul. This book sold for over 2 million dollars.
    In New york at Christie’s Auction House.

    These two are at the top of the list of the World’s Greatest Scientists,
    Viewed by Scientist around the World.

    Sad that for the last 25 years or so of every teacher asked no matter what
    Grade k through 16. At least 80% of them did not know Archimedes. Even sadder 90%
    of them could not tell you what one of the most Brilliant Scientist to ever
    live on Earth. Won the Nobel Prize for.

    It was for the work Albert Einstein did to show the World it could get
    Free Energy, Electric from the SUN. (THE PHOTOVOLTAIC EFFECT).

    You ask this question to any Military general 95% of them will get it right.
    Even more surprising 99% of them will know more about Archimedes then most
    Teachers on Earth. Generals know Energy is the key to Winning.

    At almost one thousand to one Archimedes always won against what all knew was
    impossible odds. Archimedes home town city of Syracuse was victorious against the
    greatest Kingdoms Armies on earth many times. Syracuse once was one of the most
    powerful cities in the World.

    I can only ask you to please look into Solar Energy, Solar Power, Solar Panels
    and Solar array on the internet under Images. To see and explore for your self
    then you be the JURY.

    More then 10 years ago the Internet became most of the World’s Universities
    Learning Platform. A Modern Day Archimedes Resource Center.

    The Solar Energy Industry in the year 2010 and 2011 has leaped ahead farther and
    faster then any other industry on Earth. The Solar Industry in the
    United States of America alone, has grown by more than 50% in 2010 and
    that number has gone up even higher for the 2011 year.

    The strong benefits of Solar Energy is Clear Clean Air viewed in major cities
    as improving air quality. Clean Cities. By all that use their brain for good .
    View it as protecting the environment and Freedom from OIL , Coal and other Dirty Energy.

    While many Governments has eased the Taxes on Renewable Energy . Some cities in
    the states that these Legislators come from have
    worked against these tax credits.

    By doing so they are showing their true objectives. That they have stock in some
    power plants and do not want to lose all that Money they have been taking out of
    your pocket books for too many years. By taxing you on your Energy Bills. They want
    to Control Power and Tax Everything they can. Not let People be free to get their
    own power from the top of their own roofs.

    By adding their own taxes to them. These wicked leaders think that this will take
    away the incentives to harvest the Free Energy from the Sun.

    The Public ability and awareness for all on Earth to use the Natural Solar Energy,
    is Contributing to Production of Solar Energy Products. Making the Solar
    Energy Industry the fastest growing on Earth. A Wealth of Free Energy From The SUN.

    The more the wicked try to slow the Solar Energy Industry down, it only Enhances
    involvement and the efforts of the Good at Heart.

    through out History Many have tried to wipe the good from our history books.
    Read the Bible Jesus will Bless you more then i can.

    SolarWorld has been presenting a Einstein Award to personalities who have advanced
    the use of solar energy – and helped our Planet Earth.

    We all need to tell all our Teachers and Leaders to use our Nation’s Energy more wisely
    and efficient. Start to Teach all our Young about Renewable Energy Solar, Wind, and so on.

    Not to forget Flintstones, Fred well there are many the one that is in front of all others
    Started back in the 1970?s and started a small catalog that has turned into a Wealth of
    knowledge into Renewable Energy a book called REAL GOODS Solar Living Source Book.
    By Mr. John Schaeffer.

    The world is going more with SOLAR, Wind and Geothermal Powered Energy. The day of the need for Dirty Oil, Coal and Dangerous Nuclear Power are coming to a end fast.

    The Freedom Element Living with Hydrogen That Dr. Addison Bain has showed the world will free most all of the need for the Power Grid and Oil CEO’s.

    Very soon most of the world will not need Oil or Dangerous and Disastrous Nuclear Power. Renewable Energy like Solar, Wind, Hydro and Geothermal are now replacing dirty Energy like Oil and Nuclear. Solar Energy is growing World Wide at a record pace.

    Hybrid Cars are being sold all over the Earth. Soon Hybrid Vehicles that run on Electric /
    Hydrogen, The Freedom Element. Will free the world from Oil and Unsafe Power.

    Thanks to a Great Scientist
    Dr. Addison Bain’s Years of work for our Nation and with the Space Program on Hydrogen.

    The day will come when many will see Solar Panels on most everything. What Free Electric the sun makes will be used to split water into Hydrogen. The Hydrogen will be used to heat our homes and to cook on and put into are Hybrid Vehicles that will run on
    (The Freedom Element). Very soon most all will be filling up their Vehicles at Home.
    Free from the Sun’s Solar Energy. Just as Dr.Addison Bain has done for years The Fist Hydrogen Home Refueling Station in the World. That Dr. Addison Bain built by his self.

    GOD Bless you for reading this.
    May our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ
    guide your Heart.

    The Lord’s little Helper
    Paul Felix Schott

    Reply

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