Fluorescents, LEDs On Track for 75% Market Share by 2020

Fluorescent and light emitting diode (LED) lighting technologies will
play an increasingly important role in the U.S., making up more
than 75% of the market by 2020, according to a new report.

The United States accounts for approximately 20% of the world’s total electricity consumption for lighting at an annual cost of over $40 billion. The largest share of this lighting electricity is used in commercial and public buildings, followed by residential lighting, industrial sector lighting, and outdoor/street lighting.

“Fluorescent lighting technology is becoming more and more important in many key applications,” says Pike Research senior analyst Mike Wapner. “Fluorescent lighting is already very energy efficient, it has increasingly cost-effective dimming options, and it’s been around long enough for people to have familiarity and confidence with its performance in a variety of lighting situations.”

Wapner adds that while technical, market, and other barriers will somewhat hamper the growth of LED lighting in the beginning of this decade, adoption will start to accelerate by the 2014-2015 timeframe.

Penetration of the outdoor stationary sector will grow first, partly because color rendering is less important in these applications (thus allowing use of the least expensive LEDs). When compared to the overall lighting industry, LED sales volumes will still be relatively low in those years, but high prices will lead to large revenue figures.

The long life of LED products will also mean that most sales will go into new construction and retrofit situations, and there will be relatively little replacement business.

And even though technological, policy, and market trends appear to be driving the U.S. lighting market away from incandescent lighting, they will not totally disappear any time soon. Many types of “specialty” incandescent lamps are exempted from U.S. regulations that will phase out the most common bulbs. Incandescent lamps are also inexpensive to manufacture and there is still nothing restricting their use in much of the world.

Pike Research’s study, “Energy Efficient Lighting for Commercial Markets”, examines the key technology and market trends that are driving the use of LED and other high-efficiency lighting in the Commercial, Industrial, and Outdoor Stationary sectors.

This week, Intematix unveiled an innovative LED design that it says will boost efficiency and reduce manufacturing costs. Green investment opportunities in LEDs include Cree, Inc. (Nasdaq: CREE), Rubicon Technology (Nasdaq: RBCN), Koninklijke Philips Electronics (NYSE: PHG) and GE (NYSE: GE).

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