UN climate negotiations start next week and peak in early December at the widely anticipated Copenhagen Climate Change Conference.
Sept 21-25: UN Climate Summit, NYC
Sept 24-25: G20 Summit, Pittsburgh
Sept 28 – Oct. 9: UN climate negotiations, Bangkok
Nov 2-6: UN climate negotiations, Barcelona
Dec 7-18: UN Climate Change Conference, Copenhagen
Three in Favor, One Against
Will the world finally come to a concrete accord this year that aggressively tackles climate change? We see three reasons why the answer will be YES, and one reason why it could still be NO.
First, at last year’s Bali conference, industrial countries agreed to financially assist developing nations to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. This helps eliminate the major sticking point in achieving a worldwide accord – the wedge between advanced and developing countries on who caused the problem and who should foot the bill to deal with it. Where China falls on the advanced vs developing scale isn’t clear yet and the price tag has yet to be worked out.
An estimated €100 billion will be required – half from government and half from the private sector. The private sector stands to benefit both ways; government funds would largely be spent to extend industrial countries’ green technologies to developing countries, while private sector investments there would be backed by government incentives. Last week, the EU offered what’s viewed as an "opening bid": €15 billion ($21.8 billion) a year. Using the EU formula, the US would contribute about the same amount.
Second, on July 9, the world’s top emitting countries – responsible for 75% of global emissions – agreed to limit increases in global warming to 2ºC. The 17 countries, which met at the Major Economies Forum, publicly acknowledged that exceeding this temperature limit would lead to irreversible, dire consequences.
Third, green technologies are now viewed as one of the best ways to grow jobs and the world’s economies, as well as lead to energy independence, making climate change investments more acceptable.
One Against: Probably the biggest barrier to this year’s attempt at a climate change agreement is the state of the world’s economies, and whether there’s sufficient motivation to deal with another "big issue" on the level of attention that it needs.
US Climate Legislation Would Help
The failure of the US to address climate change through federal legislation has been a major drag on achieving a worldwide accord. Given the conflict we’re seeing over health care reform, can we really expect to get significant climate legislation passed this year?
Interior Secretary Ken Salazar told Reuters the Obama Administration still expects the Senate to pass climate change legislation this year, even thought it’s about two months behind schedule. He noted the EPA has begun the process to regulate carbon in the event that legislation doesn’t pass, but that climate change won’t be "addressed in a complete and long-term manner unless there is congressional action."
Senators Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and John Kerry (D-MA) are working on a Senate version that includes the core elements from the House bill. They plan to introduce their version later this month.
In the end, many people expect the more contentious aspects of the plan, such as carbon trading, to be temporarily ditched to get a bill passed this year. But that could split the Democratic base, much as omitting the public option has done in the health care debate.
"President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) have made pollution reductions a central part of their clean energy plan because they drive investment in technologies that create jobs, reduce our dependency on oil and protect our environment," Jeremy Symons of the National Wildlife Federation told the Washington Post. "Trying to create clean energy jobs without new standards to reduce global warming pollution would be like trying to win a football game without a quarterback."
While public support for Obama has been waning on health care, poll numbers remain high for creating jobs through renewable energy and energy efficiency. What’s wrong with passing more of a "green jobs" bill, which includes a Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Standard? It would cut emissions naturallly by growing clean energy industries without invoking caps.
Supporters of "getting something through this year" say such a bill would be a "down payment" for later caps, or the EPA could, under the Clean Air Act, cap CO2 emissions through regulations.
But many people argue that emissions need to be capped through legislation now. Having the EPA regulate is a more difficult, expensive route, and would be hamstrung by long, drawn out court challenges. And, once a renewable energy bill passes, few would be willing to vote on carbon caps in 2010 – an election year.
A July poll conducted by The Washington Post, ABC News and Stanford University shows that Americans favor a cap-and-trade bill, 52 to 43%.
The latest is that Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, says he doesn’t have time for the bill and seems ready to punt the climate debate into 2010 – the Senate is bogged down in health care and hopes to also push through a Wall Street reform bill this fall.
What do you think it will take to get a strong Climate Change Bill passed?
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Related Article: Copenhagen Climate Summit Update
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