Increasing concerns about climate change–and its potential economic and political security consequences–may spur more than $7 trillion of new investment in clean energy technologies by 2030, according to an energy research group.
Public policy and private investment are bringing clean energy technologies from the fringes of the global energy industry to the center of activities, said Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) in a new report called "Crossing the Divide: The Future of Clean Energy."
"We are seeing a major shift in public opinion," said Daniel Yergin, CERA Chairman and IHS Executive Vice President. "This is providing a vital impetus that is moving clean technology across the great divide of cost, proven results, scale and maturity that has separated it from markets served by mainstream technologies and processes."
The CERA report states that wind power is set to make the largest gains, followed by solar power and biomass–despite near-term bottlenecks in wind turbine manufacturing, supply shortages in silicon, and competitive pressures from escalating component costs.
However, nuclear and hydropower will receive roughly half of the $7 trillion dollar investment by 2030, according to CERA.
Rapid economic growth may push Asian energy needs from 30% of current global demand to 40% by 2030; combined with its manufacturing cost-competitiveness, this could make Asia a nexus for clean energy technology research, development and equipment production, CERA says.
But worldwide there is already a "bubbling" of clean energy clusters, CERA says, in places like Brazil, where biofuels are growing, Germany, which is a leader in photovoltaic (PV) solar technology, and Spain where wind technologies are rapidly deployed.
The CERA report states that two factors are responsible for driving clean energy advancement: higher prices for oil and natural gas, and government policies that put a price on carbon dioxide emissions, set renewable energy mandates or provide subsidies to kick-start clean energy technologies.
CERA also noted that these clean energy technologies could have a disruptive rather than incremental impact– for instance, shifting energy production models from central power plants to modular distributed solar production. Breakthroughs in cellulosic ethanol can disrupt the traditional vehicle fuel system, if scale, logistics, and costs prove manageable the report says.
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