Welcome to Progressive Investor/ January 2010!

Upcoming Investor-Related Conferences: 

Jan 18-21, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
World Future Energy summit

Jan 21-22, Miami, Florida
Carbon Markets North America 2010

Jan 28-29, Orlando, Florida
Magnetics 2010

Feb 2-3, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Offshore Wind Power

Feb 2-3, San Diego, California
2nd Concentrated Photovoltaic Summit USA

Feb 3-5, Washington, D.C.

Feb 10-12, San Diego, California
Wind Power Finance & Investment Summit 2010

Feb 15-17, San Francisco
GeoPower Americas 2010

Feb 16-18, Eilat, Israel
The Eilat-Eilot International Renewable Energy Conference

Mar 1-3, Washington, D.C.
ARPA-E Energy Innovation Summit

Mar 19, Portland, Oregon
Investment in Natural Infrastructure: Ecosystem Services as an Emerging Asset Class

Mar 22-24, Melbourne, Australia
Cleantech Forum

For all the Events, visit: http://www.sustainablebusiness.com/index.cfm/go/events.main

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Remember, the back issues are freely available to you as part of your subscription. Just log-in and read them.

Enjoy and Learn!

2009 Review: Glad It’s Over!

Last year at this time the economy was close to falling off a cliff - few knew what January would bring.  Although it turns out our predictions were accurate - the stock market would rise quickly and steeply and recovery would begin in the third quarter - at the time it wasn't clear if this recession would follow the usual pattern or whether we were facing something much more difficult and new. When the stock market crashed a year ago the very real question was, would it come back?

The first quarter of 2009 was indeed harsh, but after bottoming out in early March, world stock markets have been full steam ahead, rising 60-80% off the lows, with most achieving 10-20% gains for the year. When the markets charged upward, it became clear the recession would indeed follow the typical pattern, even though it was much scarier and deeper and obviously required huge inflows from the central governments around the world.  

In September, A123 Systems broke the ice with the first cleantech IPO of the year. The US battery manufacturer paved the way for others with a successful raise of $371 million. In December, Chinese wind project developer Longyuan Power went public on the Hong Kong exchange, raising $2.6 billion, the largest cleantech IPO since Iberdrola Renovables $6.6 billion entry in December 2007.

China worked its way out the economic turmoil by tapping its huge capital reserves, in contrast to the US, which added to the weight of unimaginable debt.  China's 2009 budget called for its largest deficit at about 3% of GDP, while the U.S. deficit is 9% of 2008 GDP.

China returned to growth in the second quarter, and while many thought the US economy wouldn't respond until sometime in 2010, optimistic forecasts came true - the worst of the recession ended during the third quarter. Unemployment numbers are still negative, but are improving and could turn positive by the second quarter of 2010.

Worldwide, some $200 billion in stimulus spending is directed at cleantech. China dedicated about 10% of its RMB 4 trillion ($585 billion) economic stimulus package to green projects and announced it would subsidize 50-60% of the cost for solar installations. China also passed a law which requires utilities to purchase all the output from renewable sources, regardless of the price compared to coal. And it committed RMB 250 billion ($36.5 billion) to upgrade the grid in 2009.

The US allocated about 14% of its $787 billion stimulus plan to cleantech. The EPA declared carbon a threat to human health and the environment, paving the way for regulation (special interests have already filed lawsuits). Tighter vehicle regulations finally passed, requiring cars to achieve 39 mpg and light trucks 30 mpg by 2016.

Through the Recovery Act, the US made historic commitments: (For a round-up of stimulus plans worldwide, please refer to The State of Green Investing 2009 - Issue 61.

* 3-year, 30% tax credit or grant for investors in clean energy projects
$6 billion in loan guarantees for clean energy and transmission projects
* 30% tax credit for domestic manufacturers to re-tool or build plants for green technologies
* $8.1 billion in cost-shared funding to create a smart grid, positioning it to surpass Europe as the world leader for smart meters in 2010.
* $2.4 billion in matching grants to boost to the advanced battery industry.
* $14 billion for high speed rail.
* $5 billion to weatherize low income homes and $6.3 billion for Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grants.  

California signed a solar feed-in tariff into law for small systems (1.5-3 MW) and announced its own cap-and-trade program would begin in 2012. France and Ireland also implemented solar feed-in tariffs.

Europe and Australia finalized their energy policies, requiring renewable energy to take a 20% share by 2020. The European Parliament agreed on a policy to install smart meters in 80% of homes by 2020 and the EU allocated €105 billion through 2013 - over a third of its regional budget  - for green projects that support job creation, including rail, urban transport, renewable energy, efficiency and R&D for green manufacturing processes and products.

Germany announced a goal of one million plug-in and electric vehicles on the road by 2020 - they plan to spend €500 million from their stimulus package over the next three years to catch up to Asian manufacturers.

In the US, no new coal plants broke ground in 2009, a result of a combination of widespread public opposition, rising costs, increasing financial risks and concerns over future carbon regulations. Since 2001, when 150 proposed coal plants were announced, 111 of them have been defeated or abandoned.

Worldwide carbon emissions dropped 3% and US emissions declined almost 6%.

Wind & Solar

Healthy order backlog from 2008 kept wind turbine manufacturers purring for the first quarter of 2009, but then the recession caught up with them.  Prepayments decreased, new orders dropped, inventory levels increased, financing stalled. Turbine manufacturing declined by a third through the third quarter, largely because previously ordered units were enough to fulfill demand.

On the other hand, wind farm development was much more sanguine.  Thanks to the US Recovery Act, the Treasury began accepting applications from investors for a 30% tax credit (which could alternatively be taken as a grant) in July, and the first grants were issued on September 1. The result: 7000 MW of new capacity is expected for the US in 2009, not far from the 8545 MW in 2008 - the industry record.

E.ON Climate and Renewables completed the world's largest wind farm, a 781.5 MW facility spanning 100,000 acres in Texas. 627 turbines supply electricity for over 230,000 homes.

Wind supplied 53% of Spain's electricity in November, up from 11.8% in 2008.

China now has the largest wind turbine manufacturing in industry in the world and is expected to surpass Germany as the country with the most wind installed when the 2009 figures come in. In July, China set a target to reach 150 GW of wind capacity by 2020.

Solar companies were hit from all sides in 2009. Installations doubled in California and remained strong in Germany, but they dropped 27% worldwide. 

A combination of factors led to a historic 40-50% decline in prices: the credit crunch, low demand, lower conventional energy prices, a slew of low-cost Chinese competitors all pumping out panels, and saturated polysilicon supplies. Many people predicted a shake-out in the solar industry, which didn't pan out.

Because of this complex combination of factors solar stocks generally lagged the stock markets, but a few solar firms such as SolarWorld, Trina and First Solar managed to have a strong year overall. First Solar joined the S&P 500 this year, the first renewable energy company to do so.

First Solar produced a staggering 1 GW of solar panels this year and signed a deal with China to build a 2 GW plant - the world's largest - in Inner Mongolia. The plant, which will be built over 10 years, will blanket 25 square miles - slightly larger than  Manhattan - and supply 3 million homes with electricity.

Spain slashed its generous solar subsidies, but they expanded in the US. with uncapped 30% federal tax credits for residential installations.  After a miserable start to the year, PV shipments grew 81% in the second quarter, using up existing inventory and setting the stage for a stronger 2010.  

Private Equity

For the first nine months, venture capital (VC) investments declined 42% - back to 2007 levels -  but in the third quarter, cleantech rose to the largest investment category for the first time, netting 25% of all investments - $1.6 billion worldwide.

2009 ended with $5.6 billion invested in cleantech, down 33% for the year, according to the Cleantech Group. But there were 557 deals, about the same as in 2008.

In the US, where two-thirds of investment activity took place, cleantech comprised 72% of investments. As it has for the past four years, solar took the lead with 28% of cleantech investments (84 deals worth $1.4 billion); followed by Transportation (vehicles, biofuels. advanced batteries) with 44 deals worth $976 million; Green Buildings, and Water.  

In the coming year, efficiency, smart grid and transportation could eclipse solar as leading segments for cleantech investment.

Some of the largest transactions were:

The trend toward the formation of large cleantech funds continued with Earth Capital Partners' $5 billion fund, Pegasus Capital Advisors' $2 billion fund, and $1 billion funds formed by Khosla Ventures and billionaire George Soros's Soros Climate fund.

We also saw the largest financial research firms enter the social/ environmental arena: Thomson Reuters acquired Switzerland-based ASSET4 AG, Bloomberg acquired UK-based New Energy Finance and RiskMetrics Group acquired US-based KLD Research & Analytics.


If we add up all the commitments made at Copenhagen, the sum total is about half of what's necessary to stave off climate change. Rather than showing leadership, the US continues to hold the world back, committing to measly carbon emission cuts of 3% below 1990 levels by 2020.

Although the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit was largely a bust, the world's two largest polluters - China and the US - finally capitulated and did commit to specific targets for carbon emission reductions. Yes, they're too low, but it's a first. Countries also agreed in principle to keep temperatures from rising more than 2°C and agreed to create a mitigation and adaptation fund for developing countries, rising to $100 billion a year in 2020.


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What’s in Store for 2010

2010 will be a record year for ice loss in the Arctic, Antarctic and Greenland. It could well be the warmest year on record because of the combined influence of El Niño and global warming.

Race for Cleantech Domination

Most important for 2010 is the sea change that's occurring in the world's perception of the strategic importance of shifting to efficiency and renewable energy.  While China has seized on what it views as a revolutionary business opportunity, the US is discovering the shame of following for the first time in our country's history because of our complete failure to lead on green technologies.

Of the top 30 companies in solar, wind and advanced batteries, just six are U.S. firms. Will the US stand by as China firms its leadership position? While the realities of climate change have yet to stir the US into action, it looks like the race for technological leadership could.

Tom Friedman says it well:  "An Earth Race - built on markets, economic competition, national self-interest and strategic advantage - is a much more self-sustaining way to reduce carbon emissions than a festival of voluntary, nonbinding commitments at a U.N. conference."

Even facing this leadership challenge, which largely hinges on setting a price on carbon, it's doubtful the US will pass comprehensive climate change and energy legislation in 2010, given the resistance to cap-and-trade. Instead, Congress could opt for a more limited bill that creates a national renewable energy standard and caps carbon within specific industries.

Although a national cap and price on carbon would help tremendously, the genie has finally escaped the bottle, ushering in a cleantech renaissance. In 2010, spending on cleantech technologies will rise 50% to $200 billion, topping the 2008 high of $155 billion, says New Energy Finance. Corporations, utilities and governments are too far along to go back now - momentum and investment for strategic and economic value will drive the field forward.

For example, American Electric, one of the dirtiest utilities that now depends mostly on coal (and one of the biggest spenders lobbying against climate legislation), plans to buy 2000 MW of wind power by the end of 2011, double its original goal, to meet state renewable-energy requirements and company targets. VP Bruce Braine told Bloomberg, "You're paying a premium relative to alternatives like coal or gas, but once you get them in place, particularly for wind or solar, the nice thing is that the energy is almost free.

Country by country and state by state, regulations and incentives will continue to spur demand. Worldwide, 250 climate change regulations have been enacted since mid-2008. And more and more, cities and states are vying for cleantech leadership. In December, Philadelphia became the first city to give B Corporations tax breaks.

Cleantech will be the beneficiary of record funding in 2010 as much of the world's stimulus money hits the street. The levels of public capital flowing into cleantech over the next few quarters will feel like manna from heaven, and would have been unimaginable a couple of years ago.

A shake-out in the solar and wind industries didn't happen last year as predicted, so what about in 2010? Some, like the Cleantech Group, expect "a bloodbath of consolidation and liquidation" for solar and wind firms in Germany and China, where there's the most overcapacity. We don't see a bloodbath, because 2010 should be a year of tremendous growth. 2011 could be another story.

The first plug-in electric vehicles hit the showrooms in 2010, will people buy them? We don't see huge demand unless fossil fuel prices rise (another reason to put a price on carbon now). 

Private Equity Expands

Venture capital firms surveyed by the National Venture Capital Association say cleantech is the sector most likely to show growth in 2010. VC funds are likely to increase in size, following the trends of the past two years. New Enterprise Associates just announced the completion of a $2.5 billion VC fund, the largest since 2007.

But early stage businesses trying to commercialize new technologies could still have a hard time finding investors as the economy recovers. Investors will probably focus on current portfolio companies and less risky ventures that already generate significant revenue.

Funds flowing from the Recovery Act emphasize increasing the efficiency of everything from the grid to manufacturing to resource use, and that will be reflected in private equity investments. The market for lithium-ion transportation batteries is forecast to grow from $878 million in 2010 to $8 billion by 2015. Companies developing efficient energy storage solutions for renewable energy, vehicle batteries, and software to facilitate grid and data center efficiency will be priorities for VC investment.  Water is also moving into the fore.

Over the past year, there's been more attention to the solutions sustainable agriculture can provide to absorb carbon and to feed the world's population, while reducing pollution. For the first time, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) committed substantial funds for research on agriculture and climate change ($130 million over four years, up from just $10 million in FY 2009).

At the Copenhagen climate talks, 20 countries formed the Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases to focus on ways to grow more food using climate-resilient food systems, while reducing  greenhouse gas emissions and increasing carbon storage in soils (sounds like organic agriculture to me).

There is also increasing attention to the world's collapsing fisheries and sustainable aquaculture. Expect a greater investment focus in these important cleantech sectors.

Public Markets

For the stock market, we're expecting a strong first quarter - typically the strongest quarter for stocks - as investors finally jump back in from the sidelines.  We're still somewhere in the early to mid stages of the reversal of the fear, which are hallmarks of a bull market.

Our columnist green portfolio manager, Sam Jones, firmly believes "we've embarked on a global bull market," and expects the S&P 500 to hit at least 1250 in the first quarter - but watch out for a stiff correction after that, he says. The best buying opportunity for stocks should be later in 2010 - the market could reach all time highs in 2012 if economy recovery continues.

The combination of disbursement of the massive worldwide stimulus and the need to rebuild inventories will lead to GDP growth for the next 6-12 months.

Solar manufacturers have worked off much of their excess inventories and liquidity is returning to capital markets. Many solar manufacturers expect over 25% growth in 2010 as demand recovers and prices stabilize. Historically low prices should propel the industry to another leg of growth.

Solyndra, Inc., a solar PV firm that raised $198 million in venture capital, announced its IPO.  

Improved polysilicon pricing should help cement crystalline silicon's advantage in most installation markets through next year and thin-film PV will gain market share in commercial and utility markets. 

But increased competition, commoditized products and ballooning inventories from capacity ramp-ups will change the landscape for many cleantech companies. Gone are the days when every solar or wind firm was a "rising star."

Resource Constraints Intensify

Economically, the situation looks very similar to the mid-70s, when the economy experienced a double digit inflation cycle until 1982. Stocks rose along with interest rates after the Feds bought bad S&L loan debt and nationalized it. Unemployment rose into the teens. Real estate was crushed.

We enter 2010 in a much more resource constrained world than that of the 1970s. Ironically, cleantech technologies like wind turbines and electric engines rely on rare earth minerals, which will be increasingly in demand, but short on supply. We could trade our addiction to oil for an addiction to rare earths, adding to China's dominance. 95% of rare earths are in China - the US imports 100%.

As the world's economies recover and demand picks up, prices for oil and metals will rise. Too much water in some areas and shortages in others will become larger dilemmas, and although we don't expect a crisis in 2010, concerns will continue to mount.

This will be a year for huge solar thermal projects, which are mostly sited in deserts and require large volumes of water. Tensions will rise between environmental NGOs and developers over water and land use decisions in deserts. 


Read some other 2010 predictions:

Ten Clean Technology Predictions for 2010

Cleantech 2010 Top 10 Predictions

2010:  Five predictions

Lightspeed's 2010 Cleantech Predictions

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Understanding Green ETF Performance

In 2009, investors didn't have to be great stock pickers to see their stocks rise, but some sectors (and stocks) performed much better than others.

Although clean energy stocks rose about 40%, that only reversed about a third of the losses from 2008. Energy efficiency, grid and energy storage stocks were the place to be, pre-empting more "traditional" clean energy solar and wind stocks.  

2009 winners had spectacular share price performance, including:

LED Lighting: Cree (255%) and Dialight (100%)
Smart Grid: EnerNOC (308%); Comverge (128.6%)
Energy Efficiency: Johnson Controls (64.64%); Baldor Electric (57%)
Energy Storage: BYD Company (439%); Maxwell Technologies (252%).
Geothermal Heat Pumps: LSB Industries (69.9%); WaterFurnace (60.22%)

Let's look at the green stock landscape through some of the leading green Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

When we look at the performance of green ETFs in 2009, most rose 30-40%, easily beating the S&P at 28.8%, but underperforming the Nasdaq at 43.9% and a multitude of individual stocks. Still, ETFs are a great, inexpensive place to invest for those hesitant to pick stocks.

For investors not very familiar with the advantages of ETFs, they have the compelling advantages of being convenient, low cost, diversified, transparent and liquid investment vehicles. Over the past 10 years ETFs have grown from 30 funds with $1 billion in assets to well over 800 funds with over $500 billion in assets.

Convenience, Cost, Diversification: When you buy an ETF, you're buying a basket of stocks that fit a theme (an index) - pretty much any theme you can imagine is available, but in the green world themes include large cap world leaders, clean energy, cleantech, or smaller niches - solar, wind or water.

The theme gives you diversification within the specific area the ETF focuses on. ETFs contain many of the stocks in a given sector, so some stocks will outperform and others will underperform. If you're a good stock picker, you'll usually do better buying individual stocks.

But if you're not a stock picker, ETFs have advantages over buying mutual funds: they cost about half and you can buy or sell them just like stocks - trade anytime, use limits and stop orders, shorts etc. ETFs are not managed actively however, so well-managed mutual funds may have an advantage in terms of performance if they pick great stocks. The average stock in an ETF represents a small fraction of the fund's assets, typically 3-4%.

Transparency, liquidity: since ETFs track indexes, you'll never wonder what an ETF invests in, because all the constituents are transparent, unlike mutual funds, which follow the whims of portfolio managers. The liquidity of an ETF is related to that of the stocks in the index, rather than its daily trading volume, and ETFs usually have small spreads (generally under 1%) because market makers, specialists and arbitrageurs compete to effectively flatten the premiums and discounts to fair market value.

International reach:  one of the challenges in green investing is the international nature of the space - there are important companies in China, Europe and much of the world now, many of which only trade on their home exchanges. Global ETFs make it easy to invest in companies around the world all in one portfolio.

PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW)

PowerShares Global Clean Energy Portfolio (PBD)

The WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) was the first clean energy ETF - as the first mover, it's the most well known and widely invested in ETF, but its share price rose only 30% in 2009.

PBW invests across the spectrum of clean energy companies that trade on US exchanges, while its sister ETF -  Powershares Global Clean Energy Portfolio (PBD) - invests globally. PBD rose 39% in 2009. Both ETFs reached record highs in 2007 and then dropped about 60% in the 2008 crash.

And both ETFs fell prey to shifting investor preferences in 2009. During the 2008 crash, clean energy stocks suffered as nervous investors shied away from young, high-growth stocks in capital-hungry sectors. Confidence recovered in 2009, but investors steered clear of many solar stocks because of concerns about over-supply and the steep drop in prices. Wind stocks did somewhat better, but also lagged because of their exposure to the credit crunch. 

In 2009, the outperforming clean energy subsectors were energy storage (batteries, electric cars) and smart grid, which were new areas for significant government support. In a year when government stimulus programs were the backbone of the economy, that's where the investors were.

Thus, the clean energy sector as a whole - unlike previous years - didn't move as one unit. The industry's subsectors are becoming substantial and deep, and we expect greater variability between them going forward. 

Taking PBD as an example, Energy Storage stocks were the stars, rising 120% on average in 2009. BYD Company (a Warren Buffet investment on the Hong Kong exchange), which makes batteries and electric cars, soared 439%, and ultracapacitor manufacturer Maxwell Technologies advanced 252%.

Energy efficiency/smart grid stocks rose 48%, led by Taiwan-based Epistar with a 315% gain, and US companies EnerNOC and Cree, which rose 308% and 255% respectively.

Solar stocks gained 30% on average even though the group contained the index's five worst performers: US-based Energy Conversion Devices fell 58.1% and Germany's Q-Cells fell 54.3%. Wind stocks gained 36% on average.

Thus, PBD lost out on investors' shift toward energy storage and efficiency stocks because the index is heavily weighted toward solar and wind: it contains 9 energy storage stocks, 17 energy efficiency stocks, 25 solar stocks and 18 wind stocks.

Four stocks were added in the quarterly index reshuffle, including newly listed energy storage firm A123 Systems and wind project developer China Longyuan Power. Among the five stocks that were dropped were Evergreen Solar and troubled wind developer Theolia.

Don't count these ETFs out going forward however - 2010 could be a banner year for clean energy companies in general, including solar and wind. The top 10 holdings are quite different between PBW and PBD, but both include  compelling companies across all the clean energies - American Superconductor, Cree, Trina Solar, Ormat, Itron - all stocks on our "short list" and poised for strong performance in 2010.

Major economies pledged about $200 billion in clean energy stimulus funds, much of which will hit company coffers in 2010 and 2011. Those that gain the most will drive share price performance in the months ahead.


PowerShares WilderHill Progressive Energy (PUW)

The lesser known PUW has actually been the best performer of the WilderHill indexes. The ETF, which gained 61% in 2009, consists of transitional technologies that improve the use of the dominant conventional sources we use today (coal, oil, natural gas). The companies in the index help de-carbonize polluting energy sources by cleaning them up, reducing emissions and making them more efficient. 

Although renewable energy stocks have the most sex appeal, PUW gives investors exposure to more nitty gritty companies that are making materials lighter, recycling batteries, building the smart grid, efficient lighting - in other words, everything except renewable energy.


PowerShares Global Progressive Transportation Portfolio (PTRP)

September 2008 was a tough time to launch a new ETF,  just preceding the market crash! But in a year when the US made its first serious commitment to upgrading the nation's rail system, PTRP rose 52%.

The index invests in innovative, energy efficient transportation - businesses that stand to benefit substantially from a societal transition towards cleaner, improved means of moving goods and people. It emphasizes solutions that make both ecological and economic sense and includes stocks around the world.

You'll find a combination of modern high-speed rail technologies and old-line railroads and many of the exciting newcomers in alternative vehicle technologies, from bicycles to advanced batteries and electric car-makers.


Solar ETFs

Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy (TAN) 
Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (KWT)

Tan rose 27.7% in 2009, reflecting the difficult year for solar (the S&P rose 28%), but 2010 could be a great year for solar. Of the two solar ETFs, we like TAN better than KWT, which gained 18.6%.  

Although both ETFs have similar top 10 holdings and cost the same 0.65%, TAN has a wider diversity of stocks, which helped its performance this year. TAN is a much larger fund with $207 million in assets compared to KWT's $34 million. Neither fund compares in size to PowerShares Clean Energy PBW, which has $770 million in assets.

After lagging in 2009, solar stocks have already started moving up the first week of January, pushing the solar ETFs up 10% in the first week. Buy on dips!

Wind ETFs

First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy (FAN)
PowerShares Global Wind Energy ETF (PWND)

As with the solar ETFs, there are two wind ETFs, which also have subtle differences in holdings, accounting for the discrepancy in returns. PWND gained 31% in 2009 ($43 million in assets), while FAN rose 24% ($97 million in assets).

Their top 10 holdings are near identical making it difficult for many investors to distinguish between them. PWND outperformed in 2009 because of its higher weighting in China, benefiting from the country's stimulus package, which invested heavily in infrastructure upgrades. China High Speed Transmission Equipment Group rose 95% and was 4.73% of PWND's assets, while only 0.99% of FAN's, for example. Clipper Wind is in FAN's top holdings, which had a tough year.


If you're very familiar with the individual companies in the field, look carefully at the ETFs' holdings to choose between them. Look at the mix of large and small companies in the fund - does the fund emphasize large or small caps? Smaller companies are more volatile, but have the potential for higher returns. Pick funds that match your comfort level.

And look at the weightings of individuals stocks - more concentrated funds - which contain fewer, heavily weighted stocks - outperform only if those top stocks happen to be winners.

Also consider sector weightings - is the fund heavily weighted toward solar, when you expect batteries and smart grid to outperform?

If you're not very familiar with the companies/sectors, hedge your bets by buying small amounts of several funds including more general (eg. clean energy) and more specific funds (eg. solar). As with mutual funds, review the long term performance, not just one year. You might want to stick with funds that have been around longer and have more assets - there's a reason why some ETFs are more popular than others.

All the funds we talked about will give you strong exposure and good diversification within their sectors, and most beat the S&P for the year.

Even though a fund outperforms one year, that doesn't mean it will outperform the next. For example, since most well-established clean energy players aren't in the US, domestic-only funds contain a greater percentage of more volatile stocks. That means US funds tend to outperform in good years, and under-perform in bad. While PBW underperformed nearly all the global funds in 2008, it outperformed the three global funds in 2007.

Green ETFs







2009 Performance

iShares KLD 400 Social Index Fund



Social Leaders
Large Cap




KLD Global Climate Index



Global Climate
Large Cap Leaders




Market Vectors Alternative Energy ETF



Global Clean Energy




PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy ETF



US - Clean Energy




PowerShares Global Clean Energy Portfolio



Global Clean Energy




PowerShares WilderHill Progressive Energy



Technologies that clean up conventional energy




PowerShares Cleantech Portfolio



Global Cleantech




First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge ETF



US Clean Energy-Related




Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy



Global Solar




Market Vectors Solar Energy



Global Solar




First Trust Global Wind ETF



Global Wind




PowerShares Global Wind Energy



Global Wind




PowerShares Global Progressive Transportation Portfolio



Global Efficient Transport




Claymore S&P Global Water



Global Water




PowerShares Global Water



Global Water




PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio



US - Water





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Stock Ratings Update

Stock Ratings from our research partners, Cannacord Adams and Ardour Capital:

All stocks ratings are updated throughout each month. Check for updates.

When you see two Ratings, that means the rating changed from last month. The first is the previous rating; the second is the current rating, eg, Accumulate/ Buy

Currencies: "home" currencies

** foreign stocks that have US ADRs
** Best Idea Stock

Healthy Living Stocks

Company Ticker Price Target 52-Week Range Rating  Target
Atrium Innovations  ATB.TO  C$16.80  C$24  11.45-17  BUY  2/26/10
GLG Life Tech  GLGL  $8.08  $14  6.01-12.45  BUY  12/8/10
Green Mtn Coffee GMCR  $84.39  $104  23.73-88.65  BUY  2/28/10
Hain Celestial  HAIN  $16.05  $18  11.18-19.90  BUY  2/5/10
Martek BioSciences MATK  $20.14  $27  15.36-25.43  BUY  1/22/10
NBTY  NTY  $44.56  $58  12.22-46.06  BUY  1/27/10
SunOpta STKL; SOY.TO  $3.04  $4.75  0.79-4.40  BUY  2/23/10
United Natural UNFI  $28.90  $30  12.83-29.35  BUY 12/23/09
Whole Foods WFMI  $34.87  $33 11.33-35.15  Hold  2/17/10

Atrium: price target raised from $19. Q4 results beat expectations, revenue increased 33%; strong internal growth and through acquisitions.
GMCR: price target raised from $95 (previously $80); revenue growth still accelerating - upside on all key metrics. 50+% annual EPS growth through 2011 at a minimum. Stock price is high, however.
HAIN: sufficient liquidity and strong industry position; undervalued, but category growth lackluster for 2010.
Martek: raised 2010 guidance
NBTY:  accelerating category growth, strong earnings momentum and performance for Q1.
STKL: turnaround continues; robust results in core segments; stock has no near-term catalysts.
UNFI: Competitor Tree of Life acquired, creating opportunity for UNFI to capture more market share; issued favorable 2010 guidance. 
WFMI: significantly beat forecasts for Q1, sales continue improving. Shares are fairly valued -waiting for better entry point.

Recycling Stocks 

Company Ticker Price Target 52-Week Range Rating  Updated
Astec Industries  ASTE  $25.03  $25  18.52-33.68  Hold  3/1/10
Bioteq Environmental**  BQE.TO  C$1.15  C$1.55  0.32-1.56  Speculative     BUY  1/5/10
Casella Waste  CWST  $4.74  $6 0.53-4.89  BUY  3/1/10
Covanta  CVA  $16.87  $21  12.47-19.69  Accumulate  2/23/10
Darling International  DAR   $8.26  $9   2.82-9.17 Hold  1/5/10
GrafTech International  GTI  $11.91  $18  4.92-16.80  BUY  3/1/10
Headwaters  HW  $4.83  $7  1.22-6.84  BUY  2/4/10
Horsehead Holding  ZINC  $10.54  $15  3.15-13.92  BUY  3/1/10
Kadant  KAI  $14.04  $18  6.50-17.46  


LKQ  LKQX  $18.90  $21  10.75-20.58  Hold  3/1/10
Metalico MEA  $5.56  $7  1.34-6.49


Schnitzer Steel SCHN  $48.69  $62  23.35-63.98  BUY  3/1/10
Sims Metal Mgmt SMS  A$19  A$21  9.39-23.74  Hold  3/1/10
 TEG Group  TEG.L  




 33-58.75  BUY  2/5/10

2/2/10: Commodity prices are under pressure


Bioteq: JV with Newalta; Newalta will invest in Bioteq, which has successfully commercialized its proprietary water treatment technologies for mines; expanding to oilsands and power sectors.
Covanta: soft Q409 results; continuing expansion plans; good balance sheet.
GrafTech: finished tough year with strong Q4; expecting revenue growth in 2010.
Headwaters: Cemex (NYSE: CX) announced it would increase flyash mixtures in concrete to reduce GHG emissions. Business improving.
Horsehead: should beat forecasts; zinc prices have jumped 38% q/q. Industry trends in ZINC's favor.
Kadant: Q4 revenue exceeds; pulp and paper prices, demand rising.
LKQ: Q4 revenue and EPS exceeded estimates.
Metalico: pricing and demand trends positive; manufacturing expanding in NY State - a key market. 
Schnitzer: price target raised from $47 - better-than-expected performance in a difficult, volatile environment.
Sims: Scrap volumes and demand improving. 
TEG: this composting company is positioned to benefit from the UK's move to landfill bans; strong 2010 outlook.

Green Building Stocks

Company Ticker Price Target 52-Week Range Rating  Updated
Apogee  APOG  $14.38  $15  8.12-16.48  Hold  3/1/10
ICF International  ICFI  $23.01  $34  21.14-31.06  BUY  3/1/10
Interface  IFSIA  $8.35  $8  1.45-9.01  Hold  3/1/10
Lime Energy  LIME  $5.14  $9  3.01-8.94  Speculative BUY  3/1/10
NCI Building Systems  NCS  $2  $4  1.60-8.86  BUY  3/1/10
Trex  TREX  $17.82  $17  5.11-21.22  Hold  3/1/10

Apogee: tough quarter but remains profitable; no catalysts for the stock. 
ICF: demonstrated the strength and consistency of business model in Q3, growing 14%.
Trex: proceeding with turnaround, despite recession.
Interface: lowered costs; positioned to manage downturn.
Lime: "one-stop shop" for energy efficiency & renewable energy services; on the verge of profitability. Signed major contract with US Postal Service.
NCI: new manufacturing line for insulated steel panels for roofs and walls- sales growing even in down construction market.

Efficiency/ Energy Storage

Company Ticker Price Target 52-Week Range $ Rating Updated 
Active Power  ACPW  $0.83  $1.25  0.46-1.50  Accumulate  2/10/10
American Superconductor  AMSC  $27.82  $50   11.66-43.95  BUY  2/1/10
Badger Meter  BMI  $35.63  $38  23-44.90  Hold  2/8/10
Baldor Electric  BEZ  $30.91  $25  10.21-31.39  Hold  3/1/10
C&D Technologies CHP  $1.63  $2  1.09-3.12  Hold  1/11/10
Capstone Turbine  CPST  $1.14  $1.50  0.39-1.57  Accumulate  2/10/10
Comverge  COMV  $9.91  $10.50  4.05-13.87  Hold  2/26/10
 CREE  CREE  $64.70  $60  17.88-67.40  Hold  1/19/10

Day4 Energy

 DFE.TO  C$0.80  C$0.83  0.33-1.32  Speculative BUY  11/9/09
Dialight  DIA.L  




 112.50-270p  BUY  2/23/10
EnerNoc  ENOC  $27.67  $40  9.91-37  BUY 2/10/10
Enersys  ENS  $22.39  $25  8.60-24.57  Accumulate  2/5/10
Esco Techn.  ESE  $32.15  $36  29-46.87  Hold  2/5/10
Exide Technologies  XIDE  $5.85  $8.50  1.83-8.87  BUY  2/5/10
Fuel Tech  FTEK  $6.55  $9  5.27-14.15  BUY  3/1/10
Itron  ITRI  $65.38  $80 40.10-72.50  BUY 2/17/10
Maxwell Technologies  MXWL  $14.77  $17.50  4.90-21.81  Reduce/Accumulate  2/19/10
Nexxus Lighting  NEXS  $2.99  $7  2.66-7.22  BUY  1/27/10
Orion Energy Systems  OESX  $5.56  $7  2.68-6.35  BUY  3/1/10
Polypore  PPO  $14.97  $13.50  2.38-15.32  Hold  2/26/10
Power Integrations  POWI  $35.01  NA  16.75-37.15  NA  2/23/10
RuggedCom  RCM.TO  C$21.11  C$25  17.06-30.50  BUY  2/10/10
Satcon Technology  SATC  $2.49  $2.60  1.08-2.93  BUY  1/11/10
Telvent**  TLVT  $27.41  $38  8.64-41.65  BUY  2/22/10
Ultralife Batteries  ULBI  $3.95  $5  3.42-9.80  Accumulate/BUY  2/18/10
 Veeco Instruments  


 $35.16  $38  3.22-38.39  BUY  2/9/10
Zenergy  ZEN  £117  £200  117-150.5  BUY  1/11/10

Active Power: price target lowered from $1.75; continues to progress slowly.
American Superconductor: $70M wind order, largest to date - should lead to more; strong 2010 guidance.
Baldor: Q4 results below expectations, but conditions are improving. 
Capstone: highest quarterly sales to date; $78M backlog.
Comverge: new CEO.
Cree: very strong peformance and guidance, but valuation is too high. Buy under $40.
Dialight: profit growth driven by lighting side of business for the first time. Other divisions are cyclical.
EnerNOC: exceeded guidance for the quarter, approaching 5000MW under management; 2010 should be strong year.
Enersys: Q3 results beat expectations, expect gradual improvement as markets stabilize. Acquisitions will lead to $100M in additional annual revenue in FY2011.
Esco: postponed 2010 guidance - waiting for clarity on smart grid stimulus funds. Should roll out later this year.
Exide: strong Q3 results, much better than expected, but price target reduced from $9 due to loss of Walmart as customer.
Fuel Tech: price target lowered from $14. cautious near term, positive longer term.
Itron: price target increased from $70; volatile in short term; shipped 1M electric/gas units last month. 
Maxwell: raised price target from $16; positioned for growth, solid finish for 2009.  
Orion: price target raised from $6; strong quarter (returned to profitability); expects even better performance next quarter.
Polypore: price target raised from $11; core business shows signs of growth after painful restructuring. FTC investigation, unfavorable exchange rates, and increased competition in lithium battery separators. 
RuggedCom: record revenues for Q1 and improved margins. 
Telvent: price target reduced from $45, weaker transport revenues, but strong energy and agriculture revenues. shares volatile because of Spanish debt (shouldn't affect Telvent). Still compelling buy.
Ultralife: revenues fall short of estimates for 2009, but better margins. Mild growth expected for 2010.
Veeco: solid quarter; impressive orders point to very strong 2010. 
Zenergy: wider losses, but good growth potential over the next 12 months.  


Company Ticker Price Target 52-Week Range Rating Target
5N Plus  VNP.TO  C$5.33  


 4.40-7.74  BUY/Hold  1/14/10
Akeena Solar  AKNS  $1.11  $1.25  0.58-1.98  Hold  2/11/10
Arise Technologies**  APV.V  C$0.20  C$0.90  0.18-0.66  SELL  8/18/09
Ascent Solar  ASTI  $4.10  $5  2.19-8.83  Hold  1/11/10
Canadian Solar  CSIQ  $19.08  $25  3.00-33.68  BUY  11/27/09
Carmanah Technologies  CMH.TO  C$0.73  C$1.90  0.55-1.08  Accumulate  1/11/10
China Sunergy  CSUN  $4.12  NA  1.36-6.40  NA  1/11/10
Conergy AG**  CGY.DE   €0.72  NA  0.34-1.90  NA  
DayStar  DSTI  $0.39  $0.50 0.30-1.80  Reduce  1/11/10
DyeSol  DYE.AX  A0.87  NA  0.62-1.15  NA  
Energy Conversion Devices  ENER  $7.42  $7  7.28-26.40  Reduce  2/10/10
Ersol Solar  ES6.DE  €106.43  NA  92-112  NA  
E-Ton Solar  3452.T  TWD77.60  NA  62.10-121.50  NA  1/11/10
Evergreen Solar  ESLR  $1.16  $1.80  1-2.96  Reduce  2/10/10
First Solar  FSLR  $105.78  $171  100.90-207.51  BUY  2/19/10
GT Solar  SOLR  $5.52  $6  3.62-9.04  Hold  2/26/10
Hoku Scientific  HOKU  $2.29  $1.25  1.67-4.64  Sell  1/28/10
JA Solar  JASO  $4.76  $5.75  1.77-6.95  Hold  12/15/09
LDK Solar  LDK  $6.14  NA 3.75-14.27  NA  1/11/10
MEMC  WFR  $12.12  $12  11.50-21.36  Hold  2/5/10
Phoenix Solar AG  PS4.DE  


 NA  22.63- 45.20  NA  1/11/10
Power-One  PWER  $3.95  $5.50  0.33-4.81  BUY  2/5/10
Q-Cells AG**  QCE.F  €7.84  €10  7.33-22.50  Reduce   1/11/10
Real Goods Solar  RSOL  $3.08  $3  1.42-4.40  Speculative BUY  3/1/10
ReneSola  SOL  $4.93  NA  2-7.90  NA  
SAG Solarstrom  SAG.DE  €3.82  €5  1.51-3.85  BUY  1/22/10
SolarFun Power  SOLF  $6.58  $10  2.27-10.78  BUY  11/2/09
Solar Millennium  S2M.DE  €30.64  NA  6.11-45  NA  
SolarWorld AG**  SWV.DE  €11.07  €19  10.33-24.72  BUY  2/26/10
Solon AG**  SOO1.DE  €5.49  €6.50  5.26-14  Reduce  2/23/10
Spire Corp.  SPIR  $4.24  $3  3.28-9  Reduce  1/11/10
SunPower  SPWRA  $19.13  $23  18.92-34  Hold  2/12/10
Suntech  STP  $13.10  $15  5.09-21.38  Hold  1/11/10
Systaic AG  SJK.DE  €4.72  €10  3.90-7.67  BUY  2/10/10
Trina Solar  TSL  $21.44  $31  2.88-31.19  BUY  2/26/10
Yingli Green Energy  YGE  $11.29  $15  3.32-19.11  Accumulate/Reduce 1/11/10

5N: price target reduced from $6.25; this is the third quarter that results are below expectations.
Arise: Balance sheet risk too high.  
Akeena: installations: revenues in line with forecast, orders growing, but more sales to distributors lowers margins. Balance faces challenges in 2010.
Ascent: will probaby raise capital in Q2, competitive in thin film if it increases efficiency.
Canadian Solar: excellent quarter. Higher margins thanks to lower silicon prices and streamlined cost structure.
Carmanah: now has strong leadership, is profitable with free cash flow. A leader in solar LED lighting; momentum in outdoor illumination market is building.
ENER: revenue exceeded expectations, solid balance sheet, but losses seen through 2011 due to low utilization rates.  
Evergreen Solar: revenues in line with expectations; 2010 demand looks positive. Reduced costs and ramping Chinese operations later this year. Fundamentals improving, but low expectations. May need more cash.
First Solar: beat top and bottom line expectations; managed to grow 78% y-o-y in difficult year. Good entry point now.
Hoku: improved balance sheet, further financiing required. 
GT Solar: business expansion plan unclear, but got several furnace orders totaling $200M, signaling demand for its products even in the face of substantial Asian competition.  
Power-One: impressive growth and improving operations.
Real Goods: Sales are holding up despite recession, aided by acquisitions, lower solar panel prices, and larger projects.
SAG Solarstrum: target raised from €4; received €20m bridge loan for 13MW Czech solar plant, improving its credit profile.
SolarWorld: margins under pressure from German FIT cut, but remains in strongest position among European manufacturers with flush balance sheet, strong brand and price premium in German rooftop market. Will remain comfortably profitable, but adjustments to vastly different margin structure inevitable. 
Spire: Q3 exceeded revenues for solar cells, but margin concerns and lack of orders for equipment business.
SunPower: benefiting from acquisitions, just announced another, buying Italian customer SunRay, but will cost half of available cash.
Suntech: while margins for peers should grow in 2010, Suntech's will remain stagnant over coming quarters. Revenue beat Q3 forecasts. 
Systaic: shares slid on concerns of Germany subsidy cuts unfounded; strong 2010 expected. Stock undervalued compared to peers.
Trina Solar:  stock split; exceeds Q4 expectations on strong volume, pricing. Strong 2010 forcast.  
Yingli: bright 2010, but stock is over-valued and ramp of polysilicon plants presents risk.


Company Ticker Price Target 52-Week Range Rating  Target
A-Power Energy  APWR  $13.45  NA  3-21.04  NA  1/11/10
Broadwind Wind Energy  BWEN  $4.95  NA  2.60-12.49  NA  1/11/10
Clipper Wind** CWP.L  123p  100p  63-198  Reduce  1/11/10
EDP Renovaveis  EDPR  €5.92  €8.75 5.11-6.07  BUY  2/26/10
Gamesa**  GAM.MC  €10.22  €9.50  8.04-16.96  Reduce  2/26/10
Iberdrola** Renovables  IBR.MC  €3.16  €4  2.72-3.59  BUY  2/23/10
Japan Wind Development  






 NA  Japan Wind
Nordex**  NDX.F  €8.83  €13.50  7.15- 14.76  Hold  


PNE Wind  PNE3.DE  €2.17  €3.50  1.60-2.77  BUY  1/22/10
Repower Systems  RPW.DE  €124.35  €140  70.61-149.50  BUY 1/27/10
Theolia**  TEO.PA   €3.09  NA  1.09-5.48  NA  
Vestas Wind**  VWS.CO  DKK268  DKK300  222-424  Hold  2/10/10

CanHydro: TransAlta agrees to buy company for $5.25 per share in an all-cash offer. Investors recommended to tender to the offer.
Clipper: United Technologies took a 49% stake, bringing in much needed cash and mfr/logistics excellence.
EDP: strong 2009 results, installed 1.2 GW.
Gamesa: price target reduced from €12; low expectations for 2010. 
Iberdrola: strong 2009 results; wind farm operaters stronger than turbine producers right now.
Nordex: Q3 results up from Q2 but down from a year ago; wind project finance will remain difficult for first half 2010.
PNE: raised target from €3; raised 2009 guidance - offshore wind development is high margin business.
Repower: best valued wind stock. Has enough orders to meet 2010 guidance. 
Vestas: target lowered from DKK400; orders have picked up, but still lowered 2010 guidance.

Geothermal/ Wave Energy

Company Ticker Price Target 52-Week Range Rating  Target

Alter Nrg

 NRG.TO  C$2.10  C$3.25  0.60-2.98  Hold  11/19/09
LSB Industries  LXU  $14.39  $18  6.62-18.31  BUY  3/1/10
Ocean Power Technologies**  OPTT  $6.90  NA  3.78-11.22 NA  
Ormat Technologies  ORA  $31  $24  22.84-44.13  Hold/Reduce  2/26/10
Raser Technologies  RZ  $1.02  NA 0.88-4.80  NA  11/2/09
US Geothermal**  GTH.TO  $1.30  $1.80  0.46-2.50 Accumulate  2/10/10
WaterFurnace**  WFI.TO  C$25.15  C$31.50  22.07-28.38  BUY  12/17/09

Alter Nrg acquired CleanEnergy Developments, a turnkey geothermal installer.
Ormat: lowered price target from $45 and again from $39; beat Q4 revenue expectations, but sales outlook is significantly reduced for the next few quarters as projects wait on financing. 
US Geothermal: undervalued compared to peers; strong company, good pipeline. Will need more cash to grow portfolio and reach profitability.
WaterFurnace: growth resumes in 2010 - good time to buy. 

Biofuels/ Transport

Company Ticker Price Target 52-Week Range Rating  Updated
BYD Company  1211.HK  HK63.55  NA  13.38-88.40  NA  
Clean Air Power  CAP.L  




 17.41-42  BUY  5/14/09
D1 Oils**  DOO.L  £5.58  NA 5.15-13  NA  
Dynamotive Energy  DYMTF  $0.17  $1.10  0.15-0.50  Hold 1/11/10
Fuel Systems Solutions  FSYS  $28.19  $48  9.83-52.53  BUY  1/29/10
Gushan  GU  $1.13  $2  0.98-3.25 Hold  1/11/10
Westport Innovations**  WPT.TO  C$14.15  C$10.50  3.89-14.42  Hold  2/16/10
Zongshen PEM Power Systems  ZPP.TO  C$1.29  C$1.40  0.35-1.76  BUY  1/5/10

Clean Air: raised £2.4M, reducing risk
Gushan: Q3 results below expectations; unresolved consumption tax a problem. 
Westport: Revenue beat forecast for the quarter, but short term outlook is murky because of market uncertainty. Target raised from $9.
Zongshen PEM: acquiring motorcycle co.  which will add a profitable business line. Trades significantly below peer group with 7 P/E. 

Fuel Cells/Hydrogen

Company Ticker Price Target 52-Week Range Rating  Target Updated
Ballard Power Systems  BLDP  $2.17  $2  0.85-3.25  Reduce/HOLD  2/5/10
Fuel Cell Energy  FCEL  $2.89  $6  1.98-5.47  Accumulate/BUY  1/11/10
Hydrogenics Corp.  HYGSD  $0.23  $0.50  0.21-0.75  Hold  2/9/10
Mechanical Technology  MKTY  $0.82  $1.20  0.1-1.90  Hold  8/31/09
Plug Power  PLUG  $.53  $1  0.49-1.35  Hold  1/11/10
Quantum Fuel Systems  QTWW  $0.76  $1  0.58-1.77  Hold  2/16/10
Smart Fuel Cell  F3C.DE  €6.20  €7.50  5.20-9.19  Hold  1/28/10

Ballard: improved cash position
Fuel Cell: risk/reward very favorable; industry momentum for distributed generation increasing. Completed license agreement with POSCO to produce modules in S. Korea - key for long-term strategy.
Plug Power: backlog improving, enough cashflow for 1-2 years.
Quantum: lackluster revenue, supplying systems for Fisker Karma PHEV, to launch later in 2010.


Company Ticker Price Target 52-Week Range Rating  Updated
Aqua America  WTR  $17.27  NA  15.39-20.37  NA  
BWT AG**  BWT.AV  €20.15  NA 9.64-21.84 NA  
Calgon Carbon  CCC  $15.51  $21.50  10.93-19.31  BUY  3/1/10
Energy Recovery  ERII  $6.38  $9  4.50-8.79  Hold/BUY  1/11/10
Insituform Technologies  INSU  $24.56  $22  11.42-24.22  Hold  3/1/10
Met-Pro  MPR  $9.50  $12  5.88-11.36  Accumulate  3/1/10
Nalco Holding Co.  NLC  $22.96  $33  9.62-26.62  BUY  2/3/10
Pentair  PNR  $32.19  $35  17.23-34.27  Hold  2/3/10
Pure Technologies  PUR.V  C$4.55  C$6.50  3.05-5.30  BUY 3/1/10
Rhino International  RINO  $20.20  $34  2-35.15  BUY 1/27/10
Tetra Tech  TTEK  $21.29  $25.50  19.51-32  Hold  1/27/10
 Veolia Environnement**  VE  $32.39  NA  19.14-40  NA

Calgon: beat Q4 estimates, expect strong 2010 - returning municipal demand and the mercury control regulations.
Energy Recovery: raised price target from $6, projects 25% revenue growth in 2010. Aquiring competitor, Pump Engineering, diversifying revenue streams.
Insituform: strong performance and bullish 2010 outlook, but factored into share price.
Met-Pro: missed Q4 targets, but strong balance sheet & signs of recovery in core business.
Nalco: well positioned to help industrial customers "get clean and efficient" as economies stabilize
Pentair: revenues beat expectations for the quarter; modestly improving core market trends.
Pure: target raised on strong prospects for 2010.   


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