Renewable power generation is the fastest growing source of energy supply, but unless current government policies change, fossil fuels will still supply more than three-fourths of global demand by 2035, according to the International Energy Outlook 2010 (IEO2010) released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Similarly, world-wide energy consumption will grow 49% between 2007 and 2035, and greenhouse gas emissions will grow 43%, barring an international agreement to reduce emissions.
The global economic recession that began in 2007 and continued into 2009 has had a profound impact on near-term prospects for world energy demand. Total marketed energy consumption contracted by 1.2% in 2008 and by an estimated 2.2% in 2009, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services declined. In the business-as-usual reference case for the report, as the economic situation improves, most nations are expected to return to the economic growth rates that were projected prior to the downturn.
China and India are among the nations least impacted by the global recession, and they will continue to lead the world's economic and energy demand growth into the future. In 2007, China and India together accounted for about 20% of total world energy consumption. With strong economic growth in both countries over the projection period, their combined energy use more than doubles by 2035, when they account for 30% of world energy use in the IEO2010 Reference case. In contrast, the projected U.S. share of world energy consumption falls from 21% in 2007 to about 16% in 2035.
The Reference case predicts oil prices rising to $108 per barrel by 2020 (in real 2008 dollars) and $133 per barrel by 2035.
IEO2010 Highlights can be found here.
In Related News...
A senior Chinese climate official said on Tuesday that negotiators aim to seal a binding global pact on warming by the end of 2011, a blow to any lingering hopes the world could reach a deal at talks this year in Mexico.
Read Reuters coverage at the link below.