The French Government seems to favor small, rooftop installations, which would not be affected by the freeze. Hence, we expect a large number of small residential installations. Our estimates are 500 MW in 2010 and 600 MW in 2011.
The tariffs are adjusted annually for inflation, and France has a soft cap of 1,500 sun-hour/yr for which installers will get paid full price; over that limit the electricity generated is only paid €0.05/kWh.
Spain
Spain's government recently concluded investigations on potential fraud connected to 2008 tariffs, and decided not to make retroactive cuts for existing installations. This decision will help installers regain confidence in the Spanish market, and estimate 250 MW in new installations in 2010.
In 2011, new tariffs and caps will be enforced. Cuts seem to favor small rooftops installations (5% cut) over ground mounted solar parks (45% cut). Considering the amount of sun-hour/yr in Spain and that tariffs are paid for 25 years, the new FIT program can still be considered positive. In 2011, tariffs and caps will be adjusted quarterly, based on demand in the previous quarter; we estimate the Spanish PV market at 450 MW.
Czech Republic
Czech Republic has extremely generous tariffs valid throughout 2010, and we estimate 800 MW will be installed by the end of the year.
However, the government is taking a drastic step back because of concerns for grid instability and the impact of PV subsidies on consumers' electricity bills. It cut tariffs by up to ~50% for the first two months of 2011, and starting March, only rooftop installations smaller than 30 kW will be subsidized. A final decision, including the actual tariffs paid, will be made soon.
Tariffs will be adjusted annually for inflation, between 2-4%, and installers can opt to receive in lieu of the tariff the retail price of electricity plus a bonus. Given the cuts and uncertainty of the Czech market our estimate for 2011 is 300 MW of new PV installations.
Ontario, Canada
Ontario offers some of the highest PV tariffs in the world. We forecast 200 MW will be installed in 2010, and 650 MW in 2011.
The program, which was amended over the summer, is expected to be revised every two years, and has a limit of 10 MW installed capacity for a single solar park. Ontario is also using the program to support the local solar industry. In fact, in 2010, 40% of domestic goods and services must be used for installations ≤ 10 kW, and 50% for installations larger than 10 kW. In 2011, both limits will be increased to 60%.
Japan claims these requirements disregard the World Trade Organization's (WTO) rules against discrimination of products made overseas, and formally started a dispute with Canada and requested WTO consultation.
Japan
The Japanese solar market has recently been revitalized by several subsidy programs, after many years of flattish demand.
PV installers can qualify for government subsidies of ¥70,000/kW (~$850/kW) for residential installations up to 10 kW, and receive 33-50% capital expenditures for all other installations. Several tax credits and other local subsidies are also in force. Japan also has a 10-year FIT system that mandates electric companies buy only the excess electricity produced at a price that will be adjusted annually. These tariffs are expected to be valid at least until March 2011. For installations larger than 500 kW, the purchase price is negotiated between solar installers and power companies.
Due to these generous subsidy programs, we believe Japan will be able to install 1,000 MW in 2010, and grow to 1,600 MW next year.
