Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook: Warmer Winter Expected
DOE's Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the lower 48 states to be 3% warmer than last year during the October-March winter heating season, although the projections vary by region.
The Northeast is expected to experience a colder heating season, resulting in a 5% increase in energy consumption. The region is also the dominant user of fuel oil for home heating; price increases for heating fuel will drive up the average cost of home heating 13%. Households that use electricity for heating are on the opposite end of the scale, as an expected decrease in both prices and consumption will yield a 2% savings in home heating costs relative to last year. The majority of U.S. households fall between these extremes - homes heated with natural gas will experience a 4% increase in heating costs, while those using propane will spend an average of 8% more this winter. See the EIA press release.
The EIA's "Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook," released October 13, projects an average crude oil price of about $80 per barrel this winter, up by $2.50 per barrel over last winter. The EIA forecasts crude oil prices rising gradually to $85 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2011 as U.S. and global economic conditions improve.
Spot prices for natural gas are also expected to increase, rising from $3.95 per million Btu in 2009 to $4.47 this year and $4.58 in 2011. And although the U.S. residential retail price of electricity was down nearly 1% in the first half of this year, relative to the first half of 2009, year-over-year electricity prices are expected to increase by 1.5% for the second half of this year. In 2011, electricity prices are expected to increase by another 1.4%.
Renewable generation is projected to increase by 13% in 2011, and along with a 1.4% increase in nuclear power generation, that will result in declines in coal and natural gas generation of 2% and 1.2%, respectively. So even though U.S. carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels are expected to increase by 3.9% in 2010, they are expected to remain essentially unchanged in 2011. See the EIA's "Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook."
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EREE Network News is a weekly publication of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE).
