The Rare Earth Challenge
China produces 97% of the world's rare earth's and has been restricting the amount of material for export over the past seven years to protect its supplies for domestic manufacturing. Similarly, Bolivia, which has half the world's lithium deposits isn't ready for production and is providing strong disincentives to foreign investors who want to develop them. Li battery recycling will be an important source of long term supply.
Metals in short supply include lanthanum, an essential ingredient in NiMH batteries, and high purity lithium. Since it takes 5-7 years for a new mine to come online, the near term choice for automakers is to use cheaper lead acid batteries available today or expensive NiMH and Li batteries for hybrids, PHEVs and EVs.
According to rare earths expert Jack Lifton, Toyota had the foresight to protect the supplies necessary to produce millions of hybrids. It has stockpiles of lanthanum, deals with suppliers and even bought a trading company that specializes in rare earth elements. GM, on the other hand, is stuck with Li because it didn't obtain enough lanthanum.
As a result of Toyota's far-sighted planning, the supply of materials for making NiMH batteries isn't available to Ford, Chrysler and GM, all of which are committed to Li for their hybrids. And until they develop a cost-effective Li battery, they have to source NiMH batteries from Toyota!
In July 2009, Japan adopted a Strategy for Ensuring Stable Supplies of Rare Metals which includes securing overseas resources, developing a recycling system and developing alternative materials. Toyota and other Japanese corporations have been investing in Li projects and funding them with low cost government loans. The U.S. is just waking up to the scarcity issue.
What to Expect in the Near Term
Dozens of variations on the theme in batteries from advanced lead acid to Li air are under development, but to meet emission requirements in the short run, the first technologies to achieve mass acceptance will likely be more efficient conventional cars, micro and mild hybrids - affordable, effective technologies available now.
The 2011 Chevrolet Cruze Eco, which goes on sale this fall, promises "hybrid-like efficiency without the price tag." This conventional car gets 40 mpg on the highway because of its lightweight wheels, low-rolling resistance tires, improved aerodynamics and 6-speed automatic transmission.
Other improvements to conventional cars include:
- Direct fuel injection delivers better performance while saving 11-13% of gas;
- Cylinder Deactivation deactivates cylinders when they aren't needed, saving 7.5% of fuel;
- Turbochargers and Superchargers increase engine power, thus allowing smaller engines and saving 7.5% of gas;
- Variable Valve Timing & Lift optimize the flow of fuel & air into the engine for various engine speeds, saving 5% of gas;
- Automated Manual Transmission provide the efficiency of manual transmissions, saving 7% of gas
Continuously Variable Transmission have an infinite number of "gears", providing seamless acceleration and improved fuel economy, saving 6% of gas.
