Looking ahead to 2019, the FERC report projects a 38-gigawatt (GW) reduction in peak load under business as usual, equal to 4% of the projected peak load; an 82-GW peak load reduction under expanded business-as-usual, equal to 9% of peak load; a 138-GW peak load reduction under the achievable participation scenario, equal to 14% of peak load; and a 188-GW peak load reduction under the full participation scenario, which yields a 20% reduction in peak load.
The full participation scenario results in essentially no growth in U.S. peak power demand over the next decade. In this scenario, much of the load savings is achieved through dynamic pricing, combined with smart devices. The FERC report also includes a state-by-state breakdown of the four scenarios, providing a guide for legislators and utility commissioners as they evaluate their policy options for demand response. See the FERC press release and the full report (PDF 16 MB).
Copenhagen Report: "Climate Inaction is Inexcusable"
The most up-to-date report on climate science notes that global temperatures, sea levels, and frequency of extreme weather events are all increasing beyond the patterns of natural variability within which our contemporary society and economy have developed. That doesn't bode well for the future of global economies and of civilization itself, nor for the ecosystems that our civilization depends on, unless global societies rise to meet the challenge of climate change.
The report, based on a scientific congress held in Copenhagen in March, is an attempt to update the 2007 synthesis report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has already become outdated. For instance, the IPCC report acknowledged a lack of understanding of the dynamic processes that cause polar ice to melt, so the report left those effects out and projected a sea level rise of up to 59 centimeters (23 inches) by 2100. New observations have nearly doubled that projection to one meter, or 39 inches, an increase that would threaten many islands, shorelines, and low-lying wetlands.
The report also provides updates on our understanding of ocean surface temperatures and heat content, indicating that ocean warming is about 50% greater than the IPCC had reported. The new report also notes the rapid reduction in Arctic sea ice in the summer. It also notes that a decreasing amount of carbon dioxide emissions are removed by natural "carbon sinks" on land and in the ocean, thereby amplifying the effect of future carbon dioxide emissions. Meanwhile, new studies have shown that societies and ecosystems are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, and a global temperature rise of more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels will cause "major societal and environmental disruptions."
To help mitigate these disruptions, the world must limit its greenhouse gas emissions through such measures as heavily promoting energy efficiency while shifting to low-carbon energy sources, such as renewable energy. The report also identifies the eastern half of the United States as one of two critical agriculture centers for the future of the world. Given the availability of a wide range of tools and approaches to deal with climate change, the report concludes that "inaction is inexcusable." See the press release from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the full report (PDF 5.6 MB).
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Kevin Eber is the Editor of EREE Network News, a weekly publication of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE).
