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10/27/2009 02:52 PM     print story email story  

Sorry! It's Not Global Cooling!!

SustainableBusiness.com News

You've probably heard the sceptics - the cool weather across much of the US is giving them ammunition for their quest to convince the American public that we're in a phase of global cooling, not warming.

The latest polls, in fact, show Americans are less and less concerned about climate change. A poll released by the Pew Research Center last week concluded that only 57% of Americans believe there is strong scientific evidence for global warming, down from 77% in 2006.

Unfortunately, it's global cooling that's the hoax, and it was confirmed by an analysis commissioned by the Associated Press. Statisticians couldn't find a trend of falling temperatures over time.

All the "cooling talk" prompted the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climate data center to take another look at the temperature trends and they too could find no cooling trend.

The data show that the decade ending this December is the warmest in 130 years of records. 2005 was the warmest year ever recorded.

"To talk about global cooling at the end of the hottest decade the planet has experienced in many thousands of years is ridiculous," Ken Caldeira, a climate scientist at the Carnegie Institution at Stanford University told MSNBC.

President Barack Obama said, "some opponents make cynical claims that contradict the overwhelming scientific evidence when it comes to climate change, claims whose only purpose is to defeat or delay the change that we know is necessary."

Oceans can cause temporary weather patterns amidst long term trends because they heat up and cool down slowly.

El Nino, for example, creates temporary warming in parts of the Pacific Ocean, which spikes global temperatures. 1998 and 2005 - the warmest recent years were El Nino years.

On the other hand, La Nina years lead to cooler temperatures. Last year was a La Nina year, but 2008 was still the 9th warmest year in the 130 years of NOAA records.

El Nino is forecast to return, making 2010 warmer again. NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt told MSNBC, that 2010 could well break a record, so a cooling trend "will be never talked about again."



Reader Comments (1)

Author:
Eve

Date Posted:
10/27/09 03:32 AM

The only global warming is by GISS. Experts are now looking at the code. This is one of them: DecadeAV: 1879 -5.7 -7.1 -2.5 5.4 11.7 17.4 20.2 19.4 13.8 7.6 0.9 -5.5 6.3 5 DecadeAV: 1889 -0.8 0.8 4.1 9.6 14.5 19.4 22.3 21.6 18.1 13.1 7.8 2.7 11.1 15 DecadeAV: 1899 6.6 7.4 10.1 14.2 17.6 21.0 23.3 22.7 20.0 16.6 11.1 7.2 14.8 25 DecadeAV: 1909 6.6 6.8 9.7 13.5 16.5 18.7 20.6 20.6 18.6 15.6 11.7 8.1 13.9 42 DecadeAV: 1919 5.6 7.0 10.1 13.8 15.8 17.9 19.2 19.2 17.4 14.3 10.6 7.0 13.2 44 DecadeAV: 1929 4.6 6.3 9.4 13.2 16.2 18.3 19.6 19.3 17.4 14.7 10.5 6.5 13.0 63 DecadeAV: 1939 10.1 11.1 13.5 15.9 17.6 18.8 19.7 19.9 18.9 17.0 14.0 11.3 15.6 110 DecadeAV: 1949 10.2 10.9 13.1 15.6 17.7 19.2 20.2 20.1 19.1 17.1 13.7 10.8 15.6 340 DecadeAV: 1959 11.1 11.9 14.0 16.7 19.2 21.0 21.9 21.7 20.2 17.6 14.4 12.0 16.8 996 DecadeAV: 1969 10.1 11.1 13.1 15.6 17.9 19.7 20.6 20.5 19.0 16.7 13.7 11.1 15.7 2029 DecadeAV: 1979 9.0 10.1 12.2 14.6 16.8 18.5 19.6 19.5 18.0 15.5 12.4 9.8 14.7 1721 DecadeAV: 1989 7.6 8.3 10.6 13.6 15.9 17.7 19.2 19.3 17.4 14.6 11.0 8.3 13.6 1997 DecadeAV: 1999 9.5 10.2 12.6 15.3 18.0 19.8 21.1 20.8 19.0 16.3 12.4 10.0 15.4 871 DecadeAV: 2009 9.0 10.2 12.9 15.8 18.3 20.4 21.4 21.2 19.3 16.6 13.0 10.2 15.7 872 Look at 1969 decade ending. 2000 stations with a January temperature average of 10 C. Those stations are not in Canada. While this whole table of data show a much warmer average winter than the long lived thermometers, summers are still in the 19 to 20 C range. These must be more southernly thermometers, on average. Further, the decades from 1959 to 1979 jump off the page as a large cohort of winter warming. The same winter warming that we saw in the bulk data as carrying the “warming signal”. Notice, too, that though the earlier stations must have left the record (1950+33 = 1983) even the youngest must have been in the record in 1989 (+20 = 2009) and both of the most recent decades show a considerably warmer winter profile than the long lived stations. This whole bolus of stations is between about 3 C and 5 C warmer in the winter months in the later decades as compared to the earlier decades, and up to 10 C warmer than the stable thermometers cohort during Norther Hemisphere winters. It would be very hard to remove that much “winter warming bias” from this base data via grids, zones, etc. In Conclusion We have seen that there is a clear set of stations that enter the record with very warm winter temperatures. This happens relatively recently in time, and constitutes the bulk of the “winter warming signal”. The seasonal profile of these data strongly indicate a non-Northern Hemisphere location for many of them (that can be accurately identified from the station records in a future investigation). Furthermore, the arrival (and departure) of these stations roughly matches the “Global Warming” pattern. Finally, and in some ways most significant: Summers do not warm In all of these quartiles we have summer averages that run about 20C and are consistently that temperature over the entire time. If there were a CO2 (or other “greenhouse gas” ) induced general warming of the record, and especially if there were a temperature driven positive feedback mechanism of any sort, we would not have such dramatically stable summer averages spanning a couple of hundred years, a dozen thousand of thermometers, in all quartiles of the data.

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